如果联合国今天成立，有哪几个国家有资格进入安理会五常之列？

高山流水

二战结束之后，人们深刻地意识到了战争对于人类文明的威胁，所以中、美、苏、法、英五个具备着代表性的二战战胜国组成了世界层面的联合组织，也就是现在的联合国，针对战争、经济等世界问题进行管理。中美苏法英五个国家因为自己的身份和影响力，成为了联合国的五常国，不过常常有人会质疑这五个国家是否具备管理整个世界的能力。在海外问答论坛Quora网站上，印度网友提问道：如果联合国今天成立，哪几个国家有资格进入安理会五常之列？我们看看各国网友的观点。

问题：如果联合国在今天成立，那几个国家有资格担任安理会五常？

美国专家理查德•格列柯的回答

In fact, I think this problem is a little against common sense. Let me briefly explain the reason.

实际上，我觉得这个问题有点违反常识，让我简要解释一下原因。

Wrong view: the UN Security Council has given the five powers the power to decide the fate of other countries and manage global affairs.

错误观点：联合国安理会赋予了五大国决定其他国家命运、管理全球事务的权力。

Fact: these five countries give the UN Security Council the power to implement any military plan arranged by the UN.

事实：这5个国家赋予联合国安理会执行联合国安排的任何军事计划的权力。

Organizations like the United Nations can succeed only if they have the following two prerequisites: the cooperation of the most powerful countries on earth and the reasons for them to work together for the common best interests.

像联合国这样的组织办任何事只有具备以下两个前提才能成功：地球上最强大国家的合作意向，以及让它们为共同的最佳利益而共同努力的理由。

This is the reason why the Allies established the United Nations at the end of World War II. The five most powerful allies that rose after the war - the United States, China, the Soviet Union, Britain and France - were forced to work together to prevent the axis powers from rising again and avoid World War III.

这正是二战末期同盟国建立联合国的原因。战后崛起的五个最强大的盟国——美国、中国、苏联、英国和法国——被迫共同努力，防止轴心国再次崛起，避免第三次世界大战。

The Soviet Union and China suffered brutal aggression. The two countries had the highest number of military and civilian deaths, about 20million and 15million respectively. France was beaten to surrender and Britain was bombed by the German army. After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, the United States had to give up its isolationist position again, provide funds and weapons for its allies, and invest in the battlefield.

苏联和中国本土遭到了残酷的侵略，这两个国家的军人和平民死亡人数最多，分别约为1500万和2000万。法国被打到投降，英国遭到德军轰炸。珍珠港大轰炸后，美国不得不再次放弃其孤立主义立场，为盟友提供资金和武器，并投入到战场中去。

These countries are also the countries most capable of launching the Third World War, and the consequences may far exceed the damage and casualties caused by the Second World War. It is gratifying that even in the tense situation of the cold war, these five countries have successfully avoided the outbreak of the third world war or nuclear war.

这些国家也是最有能力发动第三次世界大战的国家，后果有可能远远超过第二次世界大战造成的破坏和伤亡。值得欣慰的是，即使在冷战的紧张局势中，这五个国家也成功地避免了第三次世界大战或核战争的爆发。

In the post Cold War world, as the threat of large-scale war between major countries has been eliminated, economic development has become the main theme and the main standard to measure a country's comprehensive national strength.

在冷战后的世界里，由于大国之间爆发大规模战争的威胁已经消除，经济发展成为了主旋律，也是衡量一个国家综合国力的主要标准。

In the global market, these countries are financially interdependent, and their economies depend on Global trade, which requires a certain degree of global stability. It is not in their best interests to wage war with any of the most powerful countries.

在全球市场中，这些国家在金融上相互依存，其经济依赖于全球贸易，这需要一定程度的全球稳定，与任何最强大的国家开战都不符合它们的最佳利益。

Today, the overriding common interest of the world's most powerful countries is still the same: to prevent a widespread global disaster, which will undermine the stability of the global market and threaten the economy and security of their countries. The first issue on the list of disasters is war between major powers with nuclear weapons, although the possibility is lower today than ever before. The second is the regional instability that affects the global market. For example, the regional conflict in the Middle East has hindered the flow of oil to industrialized countries. Then there are threats from climate change, global epidemics, terrorism, etc.

今天，世界上最强大国家压倒一切的共同利益仍然是一致的：防止一场波及全球的灾难，这场灾难将破坏全球市场的稳定，并威胁其国家的经济和安全。灾难清单上的第一个问题是拥有核武器的大国之间的战争，尽管这种可能性今天比以往任何时候都低。其次是影响全球市场的区域不稳定，例如中东的区域冲突阻碍了石油流向工业化国家。之后是来自气候变化、全球流行病、恐怖主义等的威胁。

First of all, give my answer: it's still the current five. If I have to choose other countries, I will give the following possible situations:

下面给出我的答案：入选名单仍然是现在的五国。如果非要选择其他国家，我将给出一下几种可能情况：

1. The United States, China, Russia, Germany and Japan. Apart from Russia, these countries have the strongest economic strength. Although Russia's financial situation is not strong in terms of GDP, it does have huge oil reserves, strong military strength, and influence with major countries, which makes it a necessary choice. Germany can informally represent the EU. Although brexit complicates this, the EU economy is stronger than the UK. Although Japan's military strength is limited by the constitution, it has the firm support of the United States, and its economy (although currently in recession) also provides an advantage.

1、美国、中国、俄罗斯、德国和日本。除俄罗斯外，这些国家的经济实力最强。尽管从国内生产总值来看，俄罗斯的财政状况并不强劲，但它确实拥有庞大的石油储备、强大的军事力量，以及与主要国家的影响力，这使它成为一个必要的选择。德国可以非正式地代表欧盟，尽管英国脱欧使这一点复杂化，但欧盟经济比英国更强大。尽管日本的军事实力受到宪法的限制，但它得到了美国的坚定支持，其经济（尽管目前处于衰退期）也为其提供了优势。

2. The United States, China, Russia, Britain and Germany;

2、美国、中国、俄罗斯、英国和德国；

3. Current five permanent members: the United States, China, Russia, Britain and France;

3、当前五常成员国：美国、中国、俄罗斯、英国和法国；

4. The United States, China, Russia, Germany and France.

4、美国、中国、俄罗斯、德国和法国。

In the first scenario, the two most controversial options are to retain Russia and replace Britain and France with Germany and Japan. I have explained the logic of retaining Russia. France and Britain are similar in economic and military strength, and are stronger than Germany in military strength. However, without the cooperation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United States, none of these countries can project military forces far beyond their borders at any time. No country's economy can compare with that of the entire EU, which gives Germany an advantage in military and economic strength.

在第一个场景中，两个最有争议的选择是保留俄罗斯，用德国和日本取代英国和法国。我已经解释了保留俄罗斯的逻辑。法国和英国经济和军事实力方面相似，在军事实力方面都比德国强大。然而，如果没有北大西洋公约组织和美国的合作，这些国家中没有一个能够在任何时间内将军事力量远远投射到其边界之外。没有一个国家的经济能与整个欧盟相比，这使德国在军事和经济实力方面具有优势。

If the number of permanent members is increased to seven, the choice will be easier. I will add Germany and Japan to the current five permanent members. Replace France or Britain with Turkey or India, although increasing India will certainly irritate Pakistan. Based on economic strength, another strong possibility is to join Brazil, so that South America has a greater say in decision-making.

如果常任理事国增加到7个，选择将更加容易，我将把德国和日本加入当前的五常。用土耳其或印度取代法国或英国，尽管增加印度肯定会激怒巴基斯坦。基于经济实力，另一个强大的可能性是加入巴西，使南美在决策中拥有更大的话语权。

However, in the final analysis, egalitarianism is not the best way to ensure the successful operation of the United Nations. Egalitarianism can only play a role in a stable framework, and a stable global framework and market can only be guaranteed by economic and military forces. This is the world we live in.

然而，归根结底，平等主义并不是确保联合国成功运行的最佳方式。平均主义只能在稳定的框架内发挥作用，而稳定的全球框架和市场只能通过经济和军事力量来保障，这就是我们生活的世界。

It is worth noting that since the end of the Second World War and the founding of the United Nations, the average overall living standard of the people of all countries is higher today than at any time in history. The total number of deaths caused by war has declined steadily, and the average number of deaths in the past two decades is lower than at any time in history. Disease, famine and hunger have been greatly reduced. There is no doubt that the world can do better, but a miscarriage of justice may also lead to a hopeless situation.

值得注意的是，自第二次世界大战结束和联合国成立以来，各国人民的平均总体生活水平今天比历史上任何时候都高。战争造成的总死亡人数稳步下降，过去二十年的平均死亡人数低于历史上任何时候。疾病、饥荒和饥饿已大大减少。毫无疑问，世界可以做得更好，但一个误判也可能导致万劫不复的境地。

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印度网友阿密特的回答

1. The United States, 2. China, 3. Russia, 4. India, 5. Japan

1.美国、2.中国、3.俄罗斯、4.印度、5.日本

The United States, China and Russia are obvious. The United States and China are the world's economic and military powers. Russia is a country with a weak economy but extremely strong military power, so at least for now, Russia should stay in the Security Council.

美国、中国和俄罗斯是显而易见的。美国和中国是世界的经济和军事强国。俄罗斯是一个经济较弱但军事力量极为强大的国家，因此至少就目前而言，俄罗斯应该留在安理会。

India is also a choice that cannot be ignored. The second largest population, the third largest economy (PPP) or the fifth largest (nominal) and fourth largest military force, which has a unique position of alliance with the United States, Russia and Japan. It has links with almost every party in every conflict, which makes it a very good neutral choice in the Security Council.

印度也是一个不容忽视的选择。第二大人口、第三大经济体（PPP）或第五大（名义上）、第四强大的军事力量，它具有与美国、俄罗斯和日本结盟的独特地位。它几乎与每一场冲突的每一方都有联系，这使它成为安理会中一个非常好的中立选择。

Japan is a country with a large population and strong military power. Although the Japanese self defense force is a defensive force, its economy is very strong, ranking fourth in terms of purchasing power parity and third in terms of nominal value. It has a very strong export, large-scale innovation and great cultural influence.

日本是一个人口众多、军事力量强大的国家。虽然日本自卫队是一支防守力量，但它的经济非常强劲，按购买力平价计算排名第四，按名义价值计算排名第三。它有非常强大的出口、大规模的创新、巨大的文化影响力。

Yes, I just excluded France and Britain. Considering that France is not a real winner of the war (de Gaulle elevated France's historical status), it is not qualified to be included in it at all. Germany is a defeated country, and France's economic scale is not so large, and its military strength is not so strong.

是的，我刚刚把法国和英国排除在外。考虑到法国并不是一个真正的战争胜利者（戴高乐拔高了法国的历史地位），根本没有资格列入其中。德国是战败国，法国的经济规模也没有那么大，其军事力量也没有那么强大。

The situation in Britain is similar to that in France. Although London has great economic influence (as a class a city), other aspects of this country have no sense of existence on the world stage. It hides behind the United States and follows suit. The power of the whole country is almost concentrated in one city. Compared with other countries on the list, Britain's economic and military strength is weak.

英国与法国的情况类似，虽然伦敦有着巨大的经济影响力（作为一个A级城市），但这个国家的其他方面在世界舞台上毫无存在感，它躲在美国后边亦步亦趋，整个国家的力量几乎都集中在一个城市。与名单上的其他国家相比，英国的经济和军事实力较疲软。

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阿尔巴尼亚网友爱思特温•皮特的回答

The current five permanent members of the Security Council are the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

安全理事会目前的五个常任理事国是：美国、英国、法国、俄罗斯、中国。

These countries were selected according to their strength in the 1940s, but since then, the concentration of power has been constantly transferred from Europe to Asia. So far, it seems unfair not to update and have the same countries as the permanent members. Therefore, I think it needs to be changed.

这些国家是在20世纪40年代根据其实力选择的，但从那时起，权力集中不断从欧洲转移到亚洲，到目前为止，不更新并拥有与常任理事国相同的国家似乎是不公平的，因此，我觉得需要改变。

I will choose these five countries based on the following factors:

我将根据以下因素选择这5个国家：

Military power - this means how powerful the country's military deterrence capability is.

军事力量——这意味着这个国家的军事威慑能力有多强大。

2. Economy - here, we will see how strong this country's economy is and how its trade relations with different countries are.

2、经济——在这里，我们将看到这个国家的经济有多强大，以及它与不同国家的贸易关系如何。

3. Impact on other countries - the extent of the country's impact on other countries.

3、对其他国家的影响——该国对其他国家影响的程度。

4. Representativeness - here, we will see that all people in the world have been correctly represented or not.

4.代表性——在这里，我们将看到世界上所有的人都得到了正确的代表或没有。

OK, if I choose to nominate five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, I will definitely choose the following countries-

好的，如果让我选择提名联合国安理会五个常任理事国，那么我肯定会选择以下国家-

United States, Russia, China, India, Germany

美国、俄罗斯、中国、印度、德国

What are the reasons for choosing these countries?

选择这些国家的原因是什么？

1. The United States, the only superpower in the world, has the largest economy and the strongest military power. Its influence is almost all over the world. It acts as the world's police, threatening countries to impose sanctions against them if they go against their will.

1.美国——它是世界上唯一的超级大国，拥有最大的经济和最强的军事力量。它的影响几乎遍及世界各地。它充当着世界警察的角色，威胁着各国，如果它们违背其意愿，就对它们实施制裁。

2. Russia - although it is not one of the largest economies in the world, it is still one of the countries with the strongest armed forces in the world and affects many countries. It is a strong competitor of the United States.

2.俄罗斯——虽然它不是世界上最大的经济体之一，但它仍然是世界上武装力量最强的国家之一，并影响着众多国家，它是美国的有力竞争对手。

3. China - calculated by GDP purchasing power parity, China is the largest economy in the world. According to nominal purchasing power parity, China is the second largest economy in the world. It is expected to take over the United States by 2030, because the United States is also one of the fastest-growing economies. Not only that, it also has the largest and third most powerful military force in the world. In addition, it has a strong influence on many Asian and African countries (such as Pakistan and Africa). Since nearly one fifth of the world's population lives in China, it will also be a fair representation.

3.中国——按GDP购买力平价计算，中国是世界上最大的经济体，按名义购买力平价，中国是全球第二大经济体。预计它将在2030年前接管美国，因为美国也是增长最快的经济体之一。不仅如此，它还拥有世界上最大和第三强大的军事力量。此外，它对许多亚洲和非洲国家（如东南亚和非洲）有着相当强大的影响力。由于世界上近五分之一的人口居住在中国，这也将是一个公平的代表。

4. India - India is the third largest economy in the world in terms of GDP purchasing power parity and the fifth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP. According to the global firepower index, India is the fourth most powerful military force in the world. India is also the world's fastest-growing major economy and is expected to overtake Germany and Japan as the world's largest economy by 2028. India is also focusing on developing its own weapons and is succeeding. India has also done a lot to lift many of its people out of extreme poverty.

4.印度-印度是世界上GDP购买力平价第三大经济体，名义GDP第五大经济体。根据全球火力指数，印度是世界上第四强大的军事力量。印度也是世界上增长最快的主要经济体，预计到2028年将取代德国和日本成为世界上最大的经济体。印度也在专注于发展自己的武器，并正在取得成功。印度也做了大量工作，使其许多人摆脱极端贫困。

5. Germany - just as the United States and China are world economic superpowers, so is Germany in Europe. Although Germany has no strong military power, its influence is quite strong, so it should be included in the list. In addition, it will be the only European country on the list of permanent members and will represent the whole of Europe.

5、德国——正如美国和中国是世界经济超级大国一样，德国在欧洲也是如此。虽然德国没有强大的军事力量，但它的影响力相当强大，因此它应该被列入名单。此外，它将是常任理事国名单上唯一的欧洲国家，并将代表整个欧洲。

However, even choosing these five countries does not meet the representativeness criteria.

但是，即使选择这5个国家也不符合代表性标准。

Therefore, I propose to increase the number of permanent members to seven, so that we can add one country from South America and one country from Africa to represent their respective continents.

因此，我建议将常任理事国的数目增加到7个，这样我们还可以从南美洲和非洲各增加1个国家，代表各自的大陆。

In South America, I will definitely recommend Brazil, because it is the most powerful country in the South American continent, and it is also a fast-growing economy.

南美洲，我肯定会推荐巴西，因为它是南美大陆上最强大的国家，它也是一个快速增长的经济体。

I prefer Nigeria from Africa. Its population is large and growing very fast. It is expected that Nigeria's population will lag behind that of the United States by 2050. However, the biggest challenge facing Nigeria is to lift its huge population out of poverty, because by 2018, Nigeria has become the home of the world's largest extremely poor population. 45% of the population lives in extreme poverty, and this proportion is rising every day.

来自非洲的我更喜欢尼日利亚。它的人口众多，而且增长非常快。预计在2050年之前，尼日利亚的人口数量将落后于美国。但尼日利亚面临的最大挑战是使其庞大的人口摆脱贫困，因为到2018年，尼日利亚已成为世界上最大的极端贫困人口的家园。45%的人口生活在极端贫困之中，而且这一比例每天都在上升。

This is my choice of permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

这是我对联合国安理会常任理事国的推荐。